tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7430921123281506833.post3842744189038993492..comments2023-09-28T08:40:45.617-04:00Comments on Danielle Takacs: Galloping Around the Golden Horseshoe: The Chase for Change 2008: New HampshireDanielle Takacshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07298674716918123751noreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7430921123281506833.post-39872952435197116652008-01-12T00:17:00.000-05:002008-01-12T00:17:00.000-05:00A little late but wanted to let you know I liked y...A little late but wanted to let you know I liked your analysis - and think your predictions were actually quite good - you were much closer than most polling outfits.<BR/><BR/>Agree with you wholeheartedly on the "no coronation" statement. I've been saying all week - no coronations and no rock stars. <BR/><BR/>Whoever ultimately earns the nomination spot needs to go through a thorough vetting - presenting and defending their ideas and policies.<BR/><BR/>Love you blog.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7430921123281506833.post-79485515098021849002008-01-09T08:45:00.000-05:002008-01-09T08:45:00.000-05:00THey also by the way, kept betting on Obama keepin...THey also by the way, kept betting on Obama keeping recorn numbers of YOuth turnout, except Cokie ROberts of ABC who doubted he could repeat that.<BR/><BR/>An interesting question is how many of those youth votes in Iowa were imported, as there is no time for residency required. There were an awful lot of out of state youth voting for Obama in Iowa and he still only really got 30%. The other 8% is secon choice no viables from Richardson etc. That can't happen again.<BR/><BR/>It was there to see. People didn't want to see it.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7430921123281506833.post-24159868850529801292008-01-09T08:43:00.000-05:002008-01-09T08:43:00.000-05:00The polls showed him losing support from Saturday ...The polls showed him losing support from Saturday onward other than Zogby, who probably included too many youth and independents based on Iowa.<BR/><BR/>What the polsters did that was wrong and the media is include Saturday and not discuss the downward trend. The downward trend after a bounce is not rocket science. It happens every single time.<BR/><BR/>Rassmussen polled Obama at only 1% above Clinton on Monday night. Instead of reporting that and the downward trend with the possibility of a Clinton win, which I did predict as a possibility, they chose to report a 7% lead, 14% Sat night, 6% Monday night. If you continue the trend, which was 100% clear from Rassmussen polling you get to a 4% win for Clinton which is exactly what happened.<BR/><BR/>It was there the media and the polsters learned a big lesson, but they already knew it and ignored it bounce comes down. Trends are more important than actual numbers. His trend was down hers up.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com