The Night Before E-Day in Chicago

Arrived yesterday morning in Chicago expecting to see a hustle and bustle of one of the world’s biggest cities, which is home to most likely the next president of the juggernaut of the United States. As I walked the streets, listened to conversations, I could not believe it, but I couldn’t tell that this was the base of Barack Obama’s campaign. I guess it may be just because Illinois is in the bag and the campaign is focused on the swing stages instead, but what I saw still took me by surprise.

I spent about five hours yesterday, walking the streets of Chicago to see if there was any excitement. I saw one businessman with an Obama button on his jacket quickly walking down the streets. I saw another man with a placard on both his front and back, detailing his lack of trust for Obama who seemed to have a resemblance to a man obsessed with saving one’s souls on judgment day. I guess not everyone is for Obama here in Illinois, but people didn’t seem to give this guy much attention..

Near the end of the evening and lack of signs of pre-election day life, I decide to take my chances and hike to Grant Park, the location of Obama’s E-day speech. As I walked though the park, I am sill amazed that the park seems unguarded, vast and empty. If it were not for the extensive amount of blue rows of porto-poties, it would have been any night in a big city. As I continued walking through the dark emptiness, I realize just how huge the park is. I realize that almost half of the park, the middle, is under construction and as such, the space will go unused.
I finally got to the one end of the park, and it was there that the excitement was…going to be. The only excitement at that moment was one block of media satellite trucks, at the end of the row was CBC (which did get a greeting from me and hence gave away my nationality). The event looks like a private yet intimate affair for 60 000, and a couple more thousand invited politicians and VIPs. The people that do not make it to this area, those without tickets, will experience the event outside in amazing weather fit to anoint a new era and its leader of change, watching the festivities on big screens and more likely just hearing I just like others in their homes.

But the experience will be going there, being around thousands of others, who, for a variety of reasons, support the Democratic party and its leader of yesterday and most likely its stander bearer for at least a decade. And during that time, those thousands of Americans and people from around the world who came to experience the man who they are putting much trust and faith in to deliver on his message of change and hope, will come together in what will be a goal that they hope will one day eventually last longer than a historic election night.

This election is historic – we will have a president who is African-American, but more importantly, someone who has reconciled the white and black vote and has recruited more first time voters and youth. Or we could (big long shot) will have a female vice president, who, many say, is less of a role model for women’s rights than her sex would have us believe. George Bush was able to connect with voters on the fact that if he could be president, anyone in the US could be president, and that he could relate to the “average Joe” and even be one of them. If Ms. Palin becomes VP, well I'll leave it others to note what that would say...

I came here yesterday with the expectations that the US is onto election fever that we only dream about. And clearly yesterday, my expectations of that fell a bit short. They are not dashed – the only day that matters is E-day and what happens that day as a result of it. The Obama craze that is taking over the US and other parts of the world, can be attributed to good old fashioned Get Out the Vote efforts and political organization and fundraising, but more importantly, using those efforts with a little bit of creativity and the willingness to do those tried, tested and true efforts in a more risky, yet calculated way. And it’s also been a powerful example of a campaign that’s heavily tapped into grassroots involvement that Liberals could learn from.

As I ended my night, I snuck into a 7-11 for a late snack. At the cashier, there are a handful of Obama buttons and small florescent Obama posters for sale than the average button or poster. Ahh…at least some things don’t change with the smell of new change – good old American capitalism and free markets.

I’ll post some photos later from the scene of Grant Park from last night (and any photos I get tonight), so come back here later today for my thoughts throughout the day here in Chicago as “The Chase for Change, 2008” series finally concludes with the E-Day results and a hopeful victory speech for the ages…. I expect a MUCH larger crowd that the handful of people I saw last night to say the least.

History will be made today no doubt about that. America and the world badly need change after 8 disastrous years and it can't come soon ehough.

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The Chase for Change 2008: Election Countdown and Some Perspective from 2000/2004

Well for somewhat obvious reasons my focus was elsewhere these past two months, so I think this would be the first post in this series since Palin was picked as McCain's VP. Well what’s changed since then? Let’s see well Palin slowly lost credibly and has gone from being seeing as a genius gambit and to a massive drag on McCain’s campaign as she goes “rogue” for 2012, McCain lost credibility as the economy tanked and he suspended his campaign and seemed clueless what to do, McCain has launched desperate attack after desperate attack hoping something will stick, Joe the Plummer became official John McCain spokesman, and Sarah Palin’s friend Ted Stevens became a convicted felon and opened up another Senate on the Democrats’ quest for a filibuster proof majority in the Senate.

Meanwhile Obama has stayed consistently on message (notwithstanding some less than helpful remarks from some of his surrogates), put in 3 strong debate performances, responded to the economic crisis well and now has a chance to rout McCain on Election night. He’s put the Democrats back on the map in places where they’ve been out of the game for over a decade and has raised phenomenal amounts of money ($150 million in September alone!). Liberals here must make his campaign operation a case study for ourselves (and if they get some of the top guys who worked on his campaign to advise us all the better)

BUT, let’s NOT get too confident here. Obama is clearly leading, but McCain sits pretty much exactly where Al Gore sat in the polls at this point so late in the campaign in 2000. In the end he won the popular vote and should have won the election if they re-counted all the ballots in Florida. And in 2004...well take a look at these electoral college predictions from TWO DAYS before E-day last time. Kerry is seen is solidly ahead in Iowa, yet he lost. Kerry is ahead in Florida and he ended up being trounced losing by 5%. Kerry is ahead in Ohio and he lost there too. If you look at the next day you see Kerry up by 5% in Florida so that's 10% off the actual result.

So you can see that state polls in 2004 just two nights or even one night before E-day were off by more than 5 percentage points in several cases. Lucky for Obama he is in the lead in far more states than Kerry was, but if the national tide turns against Obama in the final days (as it did against Bush in 2000 and Kerry in 2004) then so would these state polls and McCain could pull ahead or Obama may only win by a razor thin margin late in the night. In 2000 the race was far closer than polls a week out predicted, in 2004 Bush won by many more votes than the polls a week out predicted, so let’s keep in the mind.

Even so, I'll be Chicago Tuesday cautiously optimistic that I’ll bear witness to Obama’s victory speech (and hopefully before midnight lest the crowd get too restless), but it definitely ain’t over till it’s over.

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The Chase for Change 2008: Sarah Palin Vs. Hillary Clinton – It’s No Time to be Fooled

So I've said what the pick means for Obama, but what do I think of Sarah Palin as VP? Well first of all kudos to McCain for picking a woman. We do need more women moving up the ladder in politics and it’s more than about time the Republicans finally did this. BUT while it’s important to have more women it’s MORE important to have those women fight FOR women’s issues and women’s rights. Hillary Clinton was certainly that kind of woman and Obama and Biden may not be women but I know they’ll fight for them. Sarah Palin? Well let’s see how she stacks up against Hillary Clinton on the issues:
On a woman’s right to choose: She is against abortion EVEN in case of rape. That’s even MORE conservative than the Bush administration’s official position.
On the environment: Doesn't believe that humans cause global warming and is in the pocket of Big Oil and mining companies. I thought John McCain was going to be a champion of the environment? I guess this pick says otherwise, no wonder the Sierra Club is angry.
On education: Wants creationism (not just intelligent design) taught in public schools
On life-saving research: Opposes stem-cell research (which McCain says he supports)
On pork-barrel spending: She supported the infamous "bridge to nowhere" that McCain claims she opposed.
On ethics: She’s supporting Alaska Senate Ted Stevens Senate re-election campaign while he is under indictment in a corruption scandal (don’t think that a big deal? Well the video in the post I link to curiously disappeared from her website). She also was a staunch backer of Pat Buchanan who has said so many offensive things that even the bulk of the Republican Party shun him these days.
On Hillary Clinton: Nothing but a whiner. According to Palin’s own words sexism is “just part of the game” in politics and she seems to imply that it should just be accepted and that it’s something women shouldn’t talk about. And the P.U.M.A. crowd like this woman? Palin mocks everything they stand for!

So does this woman have ANYTHING in common with Hillary Clinton other than her gender? No wonder the old boys club of the Republican establishment is ecstatic. John McCain/Palin have no plan for child care, poverty, extended parental leave (it’s shameful how far the U.S. is from Canada on that), and pay equity, while Obama/Biden do. If you read the latest article on McCain's website for why women should vote for him it just says McCain will help the economy and that will help women. What a champion!

The reality of the Palin pick though I think is summed up well by the National Organization for Women:
“What McCain does not understand is that women supported Hillary Clinton not just because she was a woman, but because she was a champion on their issues. They will surely not find Sarah Palin to be an advocate for women.”

To be clear again I think Sarah Palin is to be admired for what she has accomplished, being a successful businesswoman and a very popular governor, and I’m not someone who’s gonna say she lacks the experience to be President. It’s good to see a woman on the Republican ticket as it will make it easier for other women to run for the Republican nomination in 2012. I hope Sarah Palin runs for the nomination in 2012, but given where she stands on the issues that matter to me and I’m sure millions of others who want to see women’s rights and issues ADVANCED not moved BACKWARD I can’t say she would be a friend of women as Vice-President or President. Therefore, if she and McCain pick up ANY Hillary Clinton supporters it would be profoundly disappointing because Hillary Clinton and Sarah Palin (or John McCain) have virtually NOTHING in common on the issues.

I would have liked to have seen a woman (like the governors of Arizona or Kansas) on Barack Obama’s ticket but as I’ve said from the very beginning (before it was known who would win the Democratic nomination) it’s absolutely essential that all progressives line up behind the Democratic nominee because there is too much at stake on too many issues that matter to the U.S., Canada and the world (certainly not just women’s issues) to allow someone as Conservative as John McCain to become President. I'd say that case is even stronger now with someone more Conservative than Stockwell Day and Cheryl Gallant as McCain's choice for VP.

However, whether Barack Obama admits it or not will need Hillary Clinton’s supporters to win – he would do well to do more joint appearances with her and pointedly reach out to her supporters. The convention was not the place in my view, but I see little harm in doing an event with Clinton where Clinton lays out the case of why Palin is not a friend of women and Obama gives his standard stump speech but with added praise again for Clinton (I know he’s done this), but crucially with some lines about how he needs Clinton’s supporters and all Democrats to win and he asks for their support. Obama could say he doesn’t need 20% of Clinton supporters to win and surely some will never vote for him, but any voters gained leads to a much more comfortable lead-up to, and actual, election night.

I think Obama’s DNC speech made an excellent case for why all Americans should vote FOR him, but he hasn’t yet sealed the deal fully within his party. I hope he takes the next few weeks to do that. I’m sure I’m not the only one who’d like to see him have an insurmountable lead in the polls weeks before Election Day.

h/t to mydd.com for the sources
Other Liberals have commented on the Palin pick here, here, here, here, here, here, and here

UPDATE: The Democrats definitely should not underestimate Palin’s appeal. As of now her favourability ratings are a fair bit higher than Biden's and I know there were some who argued that Biden’s favourables were a good reason to have him on Obama’s ticket. So for now Palin is clearly positive for McCain’s chances. But again I think the only way for Democrats/progressives to approach this pick is by focusing on her stands on the issues, anything else I think will backfire.

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The Chase for Change 2008: John McCain’s VP Pick - McCain Admits Obama is Ready to Lead as President!

I’ll talk in the next post about what I think specifically about Sarah Palin as VP, but first I should say that I think the Obama camp’s initial response to it has been foolish. Right out of the gate they put out a press release saying Sarah Palin has little to no experience and no foreign policy experience and therefore she shouldn’t be a “heartbeat away” from the Presidency. I think Obama would do well to disavow the press release. Not to mention the release didn’t mention the historic nature of the pick, experience has been the central argument AGAINST Obama. Obama is just not going to win that argument. He’d be MUCH better to say “I believe Sarah Palin has the qualifications to be President, but I think it’s time for John McCain to stop the smears and admit that everyone on our tickets do – the American people deserve better”. If Obama and his supporters want to argue Palin is too inexperienced I think they’ll regret it and it will just end up in McCain ads. Sure Obama has more years of experience and more foreign policy experience, but Palin has executive experience which you really can’t deny is important (sure it’s only 2 years as a governor and being a mayor of a small town but it’s no coincidence there’s been very few Senators who have won the Presidency). Sure there were more experienced women (like Rice) McCain could have chosen as well but I don’t see how Obama benefits from making these arguments.

If Obama just cedes the argument that Palin has the qualifications necessary than what do the Republicans have left? I’m sure the plan for the RNC was to have speaker after speaker say Obama is “not ready to lead”, well it’s hard to argue that, if all agree that Palin is ready, that Obama isn’t. I know the Republicans are saying she has more exec experience, but the argument was always about Obama’s lack of foreign policy experience so they can’t change their arguments credibly this far in the game.

So I hope the U.S. media does its job and calls John McCain on this question and just asks point blank “if you think Sarah Palin is ready to lead, how can you say Obama isn’t?” After spending so much on ads saying Obama is not ready to lead, I wonder what he’ll say?

If experience is no longer an election issue then change, judgment and the actual policy stances become the bigger issues. Palin definitely brings the change card, but Republicans trying to win on that is like Liberals in Canada saying they want an election to be all about crime, it’s just not their strong suit, just like national security remains a Republican strong suit whether Obama likes it or not (hence why I thought the 3 AM ads were dumb because it was trying to elevate an issue that Democrats lose on). Then there’s judgment, also where Obama wins and same with policy stances.

That said, Democrats would do well not to underestimate what Palin brings to the ticket. She’s very charismatic, is an extremely popular governor and her life story will appeal to many Americans. Rather than go after her experience which is dumb, they ought to focus on where she stands on the issues and point out what kind of President she’d be. That’s the topic of the next post here.

Other Liberals have commented on the Palin pick here, here, here, here, here, here, and here

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