So he says he's staying. He's flip-flopped on big issues before, so maybe he'll change his mind again before the month is out, so we'll see what happens, but given his pretty clear statement on the matter, I'll assume he's staying for now. Now John Tory just has to get himself a seat. Good luck to him convincing one of his caucus members to step down....
So 66.9% of delegates voted AGAINST a leadership review. A clear majority to be sure, but in order to win an election don't you need more than that from your own party to win?
Has anyone ever stayed on with a rating this low? For comparison purposes, Bernard Landry (PQ) received 76.2% and resigned and Joe Clark received the exact same 66.9% and also resigned. Dalton McGuinty stayed on with getting more than 80% support.
That said the rating is not so low as where he couldn't credibly claim to be able to lead the party, it's still a clear majority and it's not as bad as Ralph Kelin's 55% which forced him to step down. A leadership review is the proper way of deciding whether a leader should go or not, but ultimately the real decision in cases like this reside with the leader himself.
But the historical comparisons are pretty clear so John Tory will be against that. He definitely has some thinking to do....
If I had to guess, I would say he doesn't make it past the month. I guess 30% of those who voted in my poll predicted this range (60-69%) (a biased and small sample to be sure), and a majority of votes here said he won't hang on.
We'll see if they are right, but the decision ultimately rests with Tory.
UPDATE: As it turns out, apparently, there was one leader in Canadian history who stayed on with less support: Joe Clark. He got 66.5% in 1981 and hung on, but decided that John Tory's number wasn't enough in 1983 so he called the leadership race then (thanks to CalgaryGrit for pointing that out).
So I guess both John Tory and his detractors can use Joe Clark as an example!
For the record here are the poll results the following questions:
“How Many Ontario PC Party Delegates Will Vote No to a Leadership Review Next Weekend (Feb 22-24) At Their Convention?”
The results were as follows:
80% + - 8% of votes
70-79% - 0% of votes
60-69% - 30% of votes
50-59% - 39% of votes
Less than 50% - 21% of votes
For the question:
"Will John Tory Resign After The Leadership Review Vote?"
The results were as follows:
Yes, Within One Day - 30%
Yes, Within One Month - 25%
No, He Will Hang On - 45%
So next weekend, John Tory faces the music from his party as Ontario PC Party delegates gather in London to decide whether they should have a leadership race. After waging one of the worst campaigns in recent memory he's definitely got a lot of apologizing to do.
Personally I think the best choice for the PC Party would be for them to give John Tory the boot and to replace him with the absolutely brilliant choice of Randy Hillier!
Surely Randy would lead his party back to the government benches as he definitely does represent the viewpoints of most Ontarians. Hopefully the PC Party delegates heed my sage advice as I only have their best interests at heart.
In the spirit of what may be the beginning of the end of John Tory's leadership, I'd like to introduce the next historic poll for this blog. This time you even get two!
Will John Tory get the 80%+1 to vote against a leadership review that would be needed to keep his position secure? Will he even break 50%?
Will he resign? Will he stay? Vote away....
UPDATE: The final poll results can be found here.
Just quickly saw John Tory on Focus Ontario. He actually said that 50% +1 for his leadership review would be sufficient to carry on as leader. Even when prodded, he kept saying "the constitution of the party is very clear".
Has any Canadian leader in history ever stayed on with any less than 60% (never the mind the many that resigned with just under 80%)? Has any Canadian leader ever set the bar any lower?
Is John Tory losing his mind?
