Dion Leads, Harper Lags

Over the past few months and in this campaign, Harper has had many chances to show himself to be a “strong leader”, but time and again he has failed. Instead, despite the media narrative, it has been has been Stéphane Dion who has stepped in to fill the void and act as a Canadian Prime Minister should….

- Dion was the first to release the costing of his environmental platform and spell out what it would cost Canadians and what it would achieve. Still waiting for Harper to do the same….

- Dion has put forward a plan endorsed by environmentalists and economists. Meanwhile, environmentalists are ashamed of Jack Layton and surely economists are appalled by Stephen Harper.

- Dion was the first to call for an inquiry into the Mulroney-Shreiber affair. Harper railed against the idea before caving (but of course shows real leadership by stalling the inquiry until after the election).

- Dion led in Montreal to establish a 182 country consensus on post-Kyoto framework. Stephen Harper and John Baird instead obstructed an over 100 country consensus at Bali and earned us condemnations across the globe.

- Dion called for Maxime Bernier’s resignation as Foreign Affairs minister for months. Harper relented only after a dozen more embarrassments.

- Dion was the first to call for a public independent inquiry into the listeriosis outbreak. Harper still insists on a private closed door one and staunchly defends his incompetent and horribly insensitive Agriculture minister despite calls from numerous scientists and food safety representatives for strong action.

- Dion was the first to raise the troubling practices of the Conservatives relating to the In and Out scandal. Harper has stonewalled at every turn trying to prevent Canadians from having all the answers.

- Dion was the first party leader to call for the repatriation and a fair trial for Omar Khadr (as every other western leader has done for its citizens), while Harper stands essentially alone in the world in his belief that Guantanomo Bay is a place where 'justice can run its course" (not even McCain and Obama believe this).

- Dion was the first to come out in favour of having Elizabeth May in the leader’s debates. Harper waited till he stood alone before caving.

- Dion was the first to call for a Commissioner for Gender Equality and his party has fielded the highest percentage of female candidates (36.7%) in this election. Harper is dead last in his commitment to women’s issues and giving an equal voice and equal representation in the House of Commons.

- Dion has proposed economic solutions to get our economy rolling again, while Harper offers no plan and says only "don't worry, be happy" when more and more experts are saying Canada has serious troubles ahead that need to be tackled.

- Dion has stood firm in casting out any candidate who have run counter to basic Liberal party principles. Neither Jack Layton nor Stephen Harper can say the same. Or do these candidates they are hanging on to actually reflect their party’s principles?

- Dion was the first major party leader to release his full platform and its costing in this election and economists, environmentalists and numerous stakeholders from across the spectrum (cities, infrastructure, education, crime, farming) have endorsed the numbers and the plans. Harper may not even have a platform, let alone a costed one. When Stockwell Day was asked for the costing of some of their proposals his response was “Doing the math on these things isn't easy.” That’s the steady hand for our economy? That’s Conservative leadership?

With Canada’s economy in trouble, our standing on the world stage never worse, and a climate crisis worsening we need a Prime Minister who leads, not lags.

A Prime Minister who would govern with convictions and purpose, not through focus groups and polls.

A Prime Minister who leads a team ready to do the heavy lifting of running a government along with him, not a one-man show.

A Prime Minister who promises serious solutions, not pie in the sky ideas that aren’t affordable and won’t work.

A Prime Minister who has a plan for the next 10 years, not just until October 14th.

Canadians deserve a lot better than the Prime Minister we have now and only Stéphane Dion is ready and able to take his place.

We just have got to be reminding Canadians who the real leader is in this race and who is the one that is obviously most prepared to get down to work on tackling this country’s challenges after all the votes are counted.

For all the talk of the media the fact remains that a large majority of Canadians do not want Stephen Harper as their next Prime Minister. I hope that majority can work to see we don’t still end up with him on October 14th, but Liberals need to keep working to ensure that more and more Canadians see over the last half of this campaign that Stéphane Dion would be a Prime Minister we could all be proud of.

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Good Policy, Sad Distortions

I have to say Stephane Dion’s infrastructure plan is the right approach we need for an issue that sorely needs government attention. Infrastructure and transit are in dire need of more federal funding. Bridges, tunnels across the country are crumbling and it would cost more later to fix them then it would now. As well, governments should be doing everything they can to prevent tragedies like the falling overpass in Quebec from ever happening again.

We also need to be building up strong public transit networks in the big cities of Canada to cut the number of cars on the road, decrease smog and decrease CO2 emissions so that Canada can start taking a lead on combating global warming. Unfortunately the right amount of funding is not there to do this and in fact some cities have had to cut back their transit networks. The Conservatives have provided some funding for infrastructure but not nearly enough and if they are allowed to stay in power longer our infrastructure and public transit systems will only get worse.

While Jim Flaherty and Stephen Harper don’t care, I’m glad to see Stephane Dion does. His plan is fiscally conservative but also as generous as it should be. At a time of economic uncertainty the right approach is not to make billions and billions of dollars in promises and risk a deficit, but to say that we need to be paying down at least $3 billion a year in debt, but beyond that, additional surplus funds should go to infrastructure. So in tough times we won’t be draining the treasury but when a Liberal government helps get Canada back on its feet again economically and we get a reasonable surplus again, the infrastructure needs in this country will be fully met.

We won’t get this under a Conservative government because they have the wrong priorities for this country, don’t know how to manage the economy, and just don’t care about the needs of cities.

Though you’d think the policy was pretty clear and straightforward: only money over and beyond a $3 billion surplus goes to infrastructure. Still that hasn’t stopped the media from having misleading headlines and people like the NDP making stupid statements based on bad spin.

The headline from CTV: “Dion promises to spend billions on infrastructure”

You’d think from that headline that Dion has made an iron clad promise to spend billions each year no matter the economic forecast and no matter if it puts us into deficit.

Then of course the NDP chime in with their nonsense:
“The NDP says they are not sure where the Liberals will come up with the money to pay for all of their promises....Where is the money going to come from," asked the NDP's national capital commission critic Paul Dewar on Mike Duffy Live.”

I’m sorry but I guess Paul didn’t actually pay attention to what Dion said, it would come out of surplus money, so in good economic times there would be more and in bad times there would be less. So it’s pretty clear where the money would come from. Surely next the Tories will say “Dion is going to have to raise taxes to pay for this promise”

Well Dion’s plan is much more sensible than the media or the other parties lay out, you can’t say it’s not fiscally responsible and you can’t say this issue doesn’t desperately need to be addressed.

When the Liberals put out a great policy, like the carbon budget, like the poverty plan, like this infrastructure plan, the response from the other parties (and sometimes even the media) is always the same, pretend Stephane Dion said something else, throw in some scare tactics (“this plan wil ruin the economy, he’s gonna raise your taxes, boo!”) and spin every way possible.

Anything but admit that the Liberals once again have it right.

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Pros & Cons of Flaherty Budget

Earlier this week Flaherty and Harper decided to defy convention by refusing to present the fiscal update to the finance committee and once again trying to control everything so the media gets the Conservative message and no one else's before the evening news.

As for what was actually in the budget, it was not near as bad as I thought it would be. The GST cut is stupid plain and simple and obviously no one thinks it's good policy. The Conservatives can take all the credit for that they want, there will be no benefits to the Canadian economy from it and it disproportionately benefits the rich. I question why the Conservatives went ahead with it anyway, I don't think it's really all that important to their base. I guess it was just to "Keep a promise" and a stupid one at that. But if they think they're going to run the next campaign on having kept all their promises they are sadly mistaken (the gutting of the "Acccountability Act", blustering on Access to Information, Income trusts and softwood lumber all come to mind) so if that was their only reason for doing it, that's poor judgment. This would have been the one broken promise they could have gotten praise all around (myself included) for.

As for the actual real income tax cuts. I liked these. I was pleasantly surprised to see that they stuck to the lowest income bracket (I was afraid they would eliminate the middle bracket or slash the top one or something along those lines) and raised the basic personal exemption. Both of those things were clear Liberal initiatives. Just like Harper did with the environment, he's initially slashed Liberal policies only to return to them later and take credit. The Liberals can't him do that on this one (Dion should be front and centre on this like he was on the environment, that Harper can't take all the credit for completely re-instating Liberal policies). Harper has only now just re-instated virtually the EXACT SAME tax regime vis a vis income taxes that existed before the last election.

The Liberals should ask Flaherty point blank "Do you now admit it was a mistake to raise personal income taxes in your first budget?" The Liberals have to not let Canadians forget that it was Liberals who lowered income taxes only to have Conservatives raise them again. Good to see they are back to where they were, but let's not let them claim all the credit (so far from reading the media coverate though it seems the Conservatives are getting more credit than they deserve).

As for the corporate tax cuts, I think these were what Dion was planning to do anyway, so again Dion should let the Conservatives claim this was their idea. Dion was out first about it.

It's funny how things change when the Liberal brought down these tax cuts before the last election, it was the Conservatives who voted AGAINST them, while the NDP and Bloc supported them (if memory serves me). Now the Conservatives apparently support these kinds of cuts, while the NDP rails against them, my how consistent these 3 parties are (who all have the same leaders as then mind you). I can understand the NDP ranting and raving about corporate tax cuts, but from the comments I've read it seems Layton opposes the income tax cuts in this mini-budget as well. Why did you vote for them last time then Jack? The NDP plainly just doesn't (or doesn't want to) understand the economy and it's why they can never be taken seriously as a plausible government in waiting.

The Conservatives and NDP can all rant about abstaining over this and that, but Harper abstained on the budget in 2005 which is the EXACT equivalent of what the Liberals are doing now so he's got no argument to make here. Meanwhile, Layton's numbers don't matter (so he's not in the position of where abstaining would make any difference) and his opposition to these income tax cuts doesn't jive with him supporting the very same cuts not too long ago. He just wants to pretend to oppose the Conservative agenda while hoping they get to stay the government for the next few decades, so maybe one day in his most ideal scenario he'll actually be, gasp, Leader of the Opposition! Some dream for all those Dippers out there, really making a positive difference to bring about a more progressive Canada.

So given that Canadians deserve these income tax cuts, I'm glad to see the Liberals did not vote against them. However, even though many other Liberals may disagree I think come election time, the Liberals should say that they are going to raise the GST back to 6% and in return, cut the lowest income bracket deeper (and raise the basic personal exemption subject to taxes higher), while also having a clear plan to combat poverty. As long as Liberals can make clear than the large majority of Canadians will be paying less overall (as only the richest would save more off a GST cut) it could sell. I know the media loves to claim that GST cuts are gold politically (and it seems many Liberals have bought into the idea that a GST raise is poison), but I don't think low and middle income Canadians care that much about saving 1 cent on every dollar as much as the media claims they do. If you're going to save several hundred a year off your income taxes that matters more. It wasn't too long ago that even Conservative supporters would have agreed with that, but if Harper says GST cuts are good, then of course the Tory supporters blindly follow.

If the Conservatives could win the last election on a campaign of cutting the GST while raising income taxes (by a full 1 percent no less which was a huge raise that in the end they didn't even go along with due to outside pressure), then the Liberals can win by raising the GST by 1 percent and lowering income taxes instead. Canadians will benefit more, the poor will benefit more (as long as the poverty plan goes along with it) and economists and the business community will praise it so I think that's the right approach even if it doesn't seem to be the "safest" politically. Liberals can't be afraid to stand up for good policy and defend it to the people in a campaign. Canadians would pay less under a Liberal government it's as simple as that. That's all that needs to be said between now and the campaign.

Though I think it was mistake for Dion to admit to considering raising the GST right now, it should be left for the campaign (and worked out with caucus in the meantime on how to sell it) when the Liberal tax plan can be compared against the Conservative one and all will see that the Liberal plan is better for the economy (on the taxes side) and better for Canadians as a whole (on the social spending side). The Conservatives were bold in the wrong direction on taxes last time (higher income taxes, lower GST) we can bold in the right direction (lower income taxes, higher GST) this time.

In the meantime as I've said many times before we should pick our time to go to the polls and this was not the one to go on.

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Sorbara and Opposition Nonsense

So with McGuinty’s new cabinet being sworn on Tuesday, it’s back to Provincial politics. Of course the big news this week was Sorbara saying he wouldn’t sit in cabinet. He cited deep personal reasons and wanting to spend more time with his family, which is a reason we accepted for several female Liberals who recently left politics, so I take him at his word that has nothing to do with political issues or differences. At the same time, he can still serve his constituents (after all you don’t have to be unemployed to spend sufficient time with your family).

Though I’ve been disappointed with some of the coverage of this and the response from the opposition. Adam Radwanski usually has some great things to say that from time to time I agree with, but I don't buy what Radwanski is suggesting about this resignation. Sorbara has been one of McGuinty’s biggest allies over the past 8 years and has worked his ass off to help him. McGuinty in return repaid him with the top cabinet post. There was certainly no Chretien-Martin like animosity between the two whatsoever so suggestions that Sorbara is doing this to plot leadership ambitions I think is false given that this would not be the way to go around doing that anyway (you would stay in cabinet and continue to show yourself to a team player and strong performer). So again I think Sorbara has personal reasons to resign and probably would have actually wanted to return to Finance but was persuaded otherwise by his family.

But then there was the shameful response from John Tory and the NDP. First Tory:
“I think the average IQ around that cabinet table just crashed with his departure, and I’m concerned about that for the sake of the province,” said Tory ...I just wish he’d announced he was leaving before the election. I think people would have taken a different look at the McGuinty government without the brains of the operation being there.”

This is BS. First of all, was Tory saying this the last time Sorbara left cabinet? No Tory was insinuating that the RCMP had good reason to investigate Sorbara (of course the RCMP were strongly rebuked on this and Sorbara was completely removed from the investigation) and that McGuinty should distance himself as far as possible from him. Meanwhile, McGuinty’s cabinet carried on just fine and Dwight Duncan brought down a great budget. Don’t get me wrong, Sorbara was an excellent finance minister and would have deserved the post again, but the Liberals managed fine without him before and will again. It’s still a loss though for sure but not anywhere near the level Tory insinuates.

Then there was the even more ridiculous comment from the NDP:
New Democrat Rosario Marchese believes the resignation will be ``a huge blow to the Liberal Party,” and said Sorbara should also resign his seat if he really wants to spend more time with his family.
“If he wants to be a full-time granddad, then I think the riding deserves a full-time member,” said Marchese.

Ridiculous! So is Rosario saying that you can’t be a good grandfather unless you are unemployed? The ones that actually left politics it was to spend more time with their children. Has anyone ever left for grandchildren? Anyways, Sorbara is saying that his cabinet duties took too much time away from his family, so he is scaling back his work to spend more time with them. But that doesn’t mean he can’t still hold a job representing the citizens of Vaughn. Marchese should apologize. Like c’mon have a little class, Sorbara just resigns and the very next minute he’s out attacking him and making outrageous statements. He should really know better.
Shame on the opposition for trying to score partisan points out of what is a very personal matter for Mr. Sorbara. They’re not off to a great start this session, that’s for sure.

I'll be back later with a full list of who I would pick for McGuinty's next cabinet.

UPDATE: Radwanski takes it back. Says that he’s been informed that there were real personal issues that happened recently (death of Sorbara’s sister-in-law) that have led Sorbara to ultimately take this decision. Good for Radwanksi for correcting himself. This further bolsters my view that Marchese should apologize though, does he still think Sorbara should resign his seat?

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Gaming the Throne Speech

With tomorrow being the day of the Throne Speech, here’s my thoughts.

Plainly, I don’t think the Liberals should be gearing up to go an election right now. And I think that goes for all parties. But the Liberals could use more time to organize to make sure they’ve got the best possible campaign plan ready to go when they have to go on the trail. Personally, I think the more time until an election, the more rope we’re giving Harper to hang himself, and today’s news that he’s creating some despotic gov't -propaganda newsroom paid for by tax payer's dollars boosts that view in my books. If Jean Chrétien had been made to lead the Liberals only one year into his leadership, it’s a pretty safe bet there’d have been no Liberal majority and they could have easily lost. It’s not to say the Liberals would lose if they went now, just that they would do better if they went later.

The Liberals need to make sure their organization on the ground is solid in each province and just as important they need to put forth a Red Book that is as good as it could be possibly be (from what I hear it’s not finished yet though so more time would be useful). Also the Harper government has had a free ride this past summer and once back in the House the heat will be put back on them over several things that have slipped under the radar. So the polls could easily be in our favour in a few months.

So I think the Liberals should do a coordinated abstention as floated about where the front benches vote against and the others don’t show up. Now I know there are many Liberals who feel that we have to always stand on principle and if it’s a bad speech we have to go to the polls. Well I would say that we should not let Harper pick the time to go to the polls by doing so. He’s gearing to go, let’s not do him any favours. Harper has been laying a few Liberal traps recently, and we shouldn’t fall into them.

The speech from the throne is just a symbolic speech after all. If it passes it has virtually no consequences for anything. Can anybody tell me the last time, Canadians went to an election over a throne speech?

Now if Harper puts forth bad legislation and makes it a confidence vote then I think there’s a real case to be made that it’s worth going to the polls over. But that’s not what we are looking at here. It’s just a speech and it’s much more important that we win the next election, so you have to weigh one against the other.

So if the speech passes so be it, not worth complaining about, and maybe a little bit of private relief should be welcomed. But if Harper then in turn wants to start making crime bills confidence votes then he’s the one that will look ridiculous as that’s completely unprecedented. So better we go to the polls over something stupid on his part then go on something he wants us to bite on.

Now it may in the end make sense for us to go before the next budget and there’s a solid case to be made on that, but that won’t be till February or March and the time spent organizing between now and then could make all the difference in a campaign. So I’d be much more in favour of voting down the government in January than in the current scenario.

Now of course the Bloc and NDP will hoot and howl at a Liberal absentia, but we shouldn’t be baited by them either. The Bloc has no arguments to make as they’ve voted for the last two budgets which were terrible. Meanwhile, the NDP may get to laugh now, but come election time, what argument will they bring to the people? “Lend us your vote just one more time and we’ll, um…complain some more about the Harper government!” The NDP have ZERO accomplishments to point towards in this parliament and have spent 90% of their time bashing Liberals instead of Conservatives (some “official opposition”). No one will believe that the NDP could form the government so what else could Jack say? People won’t forget that he asked them to "lend the NDP your vote" and that they got nothing for it other than a government diametrically opposed to the values of progressive voters.

Despite the NDP gloating now, come campaign time the Liberals will be able to argue that if you want a more progressive government you HAVE to vote back in a Liberal government (Elizabeth May will make the same argument) and that the NDP is actually much more effective with the Liberals in power anyway (just compare Martin Vs. Harper governments: something to think about Dippers). So there’s an even less compelling argument to be baited by the other opposition parties.

So Stéphane keep at it on planning the next campaign, pull your team together, and make sure YOU pick the time we go to the polls!

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