The Chase for Change 2008: Super Tuesday Post-Mortem: McCain Pulls Away, Obama Gains Ground

So Super Tuesday is done and one race seems almost over and another somewhat closer than I thought it would be.

McCain hasn't officially won the nomination yet, but Romney was seriously wounded with a loss in California and if he drops out I can't possibly see how Huckabee could win toe to toe with McCain. I was surprised Huckabee did so well last night, but if he has any hope of playing king-maker and being the VP nominee he had better hope Romney stays in in the race. Still I think McCain will officially get the required delegate threshold on March 4th when Texas and Ohio vote.

As for the Democratic race, Hillary won by a wider margin in California and New York than I expected and took Mass. which I had not expected (and also shows the limited power of the Kennedy endorsment there). However, Obama took more states than I had expected, particularly a lot of red states where some people once said he could never play in. Clinton remains ahead though in the delegate count when you factor in superdelegates.

I understand the next few contests favour Obama, which may add a bit more momentum to his campaign, but I also understand the big delegate states Texas and Ohio favour Clinton and it seems Clinton has done really well in the big states so far so I still give her the edge for the nomination, but it's definitely gonna be close and there's no way it will be decided until March 4th and could easily carry on after that.

Recommend this Post

The Chase for Change 2008: Super Tuesday Predictions

Here is the quick run-down of my predicions for tonight before the results, roll in.

I've got a mixed record on these things, but this time I feel lucky! I'm not giving exact percentages for each state because that would be insane, but I am at least ballparking the margins of victories in each state. So here goes...

Democrats

Alabama - Obama (by less than 5%)
Alaska - Hillary (by 5-10%)
Arizona - Hillary (by less than 5%)
Arkansas - Hillary (by 5-15%)
California - Hillary (by less than 5%)
Colorado - Obama (by 5-10%)
Connecticut - Hillary (by less than 5%)
Delaware - Hillary (by 5-15%)
Georgia - Obama (by MORE than 10%)
Idaho (D only, No R primary) - Obama (by less than 5%)
Illinois - Obama (by MORE than 15%)
Kansas (D only, No R primary) - Obama (by 5-10%)
Massachusetts - Obama (by less than 5%)
Minnesota - Hillary (by 5-15%)
Missouri - Hillary (by less than 5%)
New Jersey - Hillary (by 5-10%)
New Mexico (D only, No R Primary) - Hillary (by 5-10%)
New York - Hillary (by 5-15%)
North Dakota - Hillary (by 5-15%)
Oklahoma - Hillary (by 5-15%)
Tennessee - Hillary (by 10-15%)
Utah - Obama (by 5-10%)

Republicans

McCain will win everywhere by 5-15% EXCEPT:

- McCain will narrowly beat Romney in California (by less than 5%)
- McCain will narrowly beat Huckabee in Oklahoma (by less than 5%)
- Romney will WIN Massachusetts by 5-15%, Delaware, Montana and Utah by 5-10% and Colorado (caucus) by 5-20%,
- Huckabee will WIN Arkansas by 5-15%
- Huckabee has already won West Virginia (52% to 47% for Romney), so I didn't make it in time for that one.

Recommend this Post

The Chase for Change 2008: Florida Edition: Hillary and McCain Move Closer to the Noms, Edwards and Giuliani Out

So last night in Florida the two front-runners moved further ahead.

On the Republican side:

By winning Florida, McCain actually gets ALL their delegates (unlike in other states where they get divided up proprotional to the vote) so this puts him near Romney's current total (Romney is stil ahead if you include superdelegates who have pledged support). Add to that, that he will almost certainly be getting Rudy Giuliani's endorsement soon (and probably Fred Thompson's too, unless I missed that), he's going to be tough to beat.

Romney though still has way more money than McCain so if he keeps finishing a close second in lots of races where it's not winner take all he can still make it to the convention and have a chance, but it's looking a bit less likely now since I think McCain is likely to pull far ahead of Romney in delegates after Super Tuesday.

Giuliani's strategy of putting all his eggs in Florida was absolutely a horrible failure that no one will try to replicate anytime soon.

As for Huckabee, I don't know where he goes from here. I don't think he'll do that well on Super Tuesday, so maybe he'll drop out after that or try to go play kingmaker at the Convention if the Republican race manages to stretch out that far.

On the Democratic side:

I had predicted that Hillary Clinton would win back more momentum going into Super Tuesday and she has. Even though there are technically right now no delegates being awarded in the Florida democratic primary, they may yet be. As well her 50-33 victory is large enough to counter the trouncing she got in South Carolina. To boot Florida is much more consequential in the Presidential contest then South Carolina (a state I really don't think the Democrats would win no matter who the nominnee). So yes Obama got some key endorsement from the Kennedys and Teddy and Carolyn will be campaigning for him hard, but I think Hillary goes into Super Tuesday will more wind at her back and will pull way ahead in the delegate count on that day. Obama can stay in the race though by enough close second place finishes and I think he'll pull that off. SC and the Kennedy's have certainly helped to keep the media from counting him out.

Edwards apparently saw the writing on the wall and it's now being reported that he is officially quitting the race. I thought he still had a chance to play kingmarker, but I guess he didn't think so.

On to Super Tuesday....

Recommend this Post

The Chase for Change 2008: Did "Democrats for Romney" Win it For Him in Michigan? (UPDATE: Apparently not)

It seems Mitt Romney has already been projected as the winner in Michigan. As of 9:30 PM he leads 40% to 30% over McCain with 22% of polls in.

Maybe I was a bit too quick to count him out of the race completely, but since his father was Governor of Michigan way back a win there hardly put him back at the front of the race. He's still a bigger long-shot than Huckabee or McCain (who I still see as the front-runner because of New Hampshire), but maybe about even now with Giuliani who will have to win huge in Florida.

However, what I'l be interested to see is how many Democrats turned out to vote in the Republican primary and whether they strongly backed Mitt? There were a number of progressive Democratic blogs (and other Democratic Party groups) pushing for Democrats to come out in big numbers to revive Romney's campaign so that the Republican race would continue to be a dog fight with at least 4 main contenders to slug it out. Even if only 5%-10% of the voters in the Republican primary were Democrats turning out to vote for Romney that definitely would serve to have helped give him a larger margin of victory and thus a bit more momentum going forward.

Personally I think Michigan's primary voting system is crazy. Imagine letting Conservative Party members in Canada come vote at the Liberal leadership race. Well that's what it's like in Michigan.

If it turns out it was Democratic voters that carried this race for Romney, maybe Michigan will finally want to re-think its voting system?

UPDATE: Romney wins 39% to 30% over McCain in the final results. However, it sounds as if Mitt Romney won primarily on the strength of some of the more Conservative Republicans. The numbers indicate that Democrats who voted in the Republican primary I think actually went a bit more for McCain. Maybe there will be better number crunching, but it seems if the Democratic Party voters may have only played a very small role in Mitt Romney's victory if any. My thoughts on Michigan's crazy primary system and the current outlook for the Presidential campaign still stand though.

As for the Democratic race, with Hillary running essentially alone among the big contenders, her 55% to 40% (for Uncommitted) I don't think really changes much of the race on the Democratic side. Not an overwhelming victory when you are running alone, but hardly a defeat either.

Recommend this Post

The Race for the White House: Iowa Republican voters choose change

To prove to the blogging community that I know more beyond our own borders and perhaps even gain some U.S. readership :) I give my cents on the Iowa primaries. This will the first in a series of posts between now and November for Danielle Takacs' "Race for the White House 2008: The Chase for 'Change' ". Everyone is supposedly a "change" candidate (I wonder why?), which ones (Dem and Rep) will win?

It's definitely shaping up to be an interesting race down South.

First on the Republican side:
Hooray for Huckabee! He crushed the establishment candidate Mitt Romney (former Governor of Mass. and someone who has flip-flopped on every matter of principle in the past few years) by over 10%.

Now quite honestly he is an incredibly scary candidate who might very well make for the worst U.S. President in history, but of everyone in the Republican field, Mike Huckabee is easily the most likely to specularly self-destruct in a general election campaign and hand the Presidency to the Demorats.

I mean look at this guy:
- Wants to impose a 23% sales tax on all Americans. He might take some lessons from here on how popular that 7% GST was (yes I know he wants to eliminate the IRS, but his plan would still be crushing on the lower and middle class).
- He doesn't believe in evolution and talks as if non-Christians aren't real Americans (maybe he'll someday figure out there are a lot of non-Christians in that country) and is horribly intolerant on so many issues that would repel many moderate Americans
- He would divide his party in two: He has the backing of all the social conservatives, but the more socially liberal Republicans would never vote for him.
- He has a history of troubling ethical issues as Governor in Arkansas that would not play too well in a general campaign

Since the world so desperately needs a Democratic President, I will continue to root for this man. However, we should all remember that Iowa isn't everything.

Bill Clinton didn't win Iowa in 1992 but still won the Democratic nomination so Iowa does not always determine who wins the nominations for each party. Also, Huckabee has been brutal at fundraising and doesn't have much money left for the rest of the primaries. All he has got is momentum, but that may not be enough.

Huckabee also won't likely win New Hampshire. It's a tough battle between McCain and Romney there. Whoever wins there is going go strongly toe to toe with Huckabee for at least the next few weeks.

As well, people might think that just because Giuliani got 4% in Iowa that he is finished, but he didn't campaign in the early states. He's going after the big delegate states like Florida and California and if he wins there he can still win. He has to win Florida on Jan. 29th and get some momentum on his side though as he can't keep losing early primaries without some people starting to count him out. But for now he's still easily in the game as he leads in the polls in a lot of the delegate rich states.

Recommend this Post