The Chase for Change 2008: Florida Edition: Hillary and McCain Move Closer to the Noms, Edwards and Giuliani Out

So last night in Florida the two front-runners moved further ahead.

On the Republican side:

By winning Florida, McCain actually gets ALL their delegates (unlike in other states where they get divided up proprotional to the vote) so this puts him near Romney's current total (Romney is stil ahead if you include superdelegates who have pledged support). Add to that, that he will almost certainly be getting Rudy Giuliani's endorsement soon (and probably Fred Thompson's too, unless I missed that), he's going to be tough to beat.

Romney though still has way more money than McCain so if he keeps finishing a close second in lots of races where it's not winner take all he can still make it to the convention and have a chance, but it's looking a bit less likely now since I think McCain is likely to pull far ahead of Romney in delegates after Super Tuesday.

Giuliani's strategy of putting all his eggs in Florida was absolutely a horrible failure that no one will try to replicate anytime soon.

As for Huckabee, I don't know where he goes from here. I don't think he'll do that well on Super Tuesday, so maybe he'll drop out after that or try to go play kingmaker at the Convention if the Republican race manages to stretch out that far.

On the Democratic side:

I had predicted that Hillary Clinton would win back more momentum going into Super Tuesday and she has. Even though there are technically right now no delegates being awarded in the Florida democratic primary, they may yet be. As well her 50-33 victory is large enough to counter the trouncing she got in South Carolina. To boot Florida is much more consequential in the Presidential contest then South Carolina (a state I really don't think the Democrats would win no matter who the nominnee). So yes Obama got some key endorsement from the Kennedys and Teddy and Carolyn will be campaigning for him hard, but I think Hillary goes into Super Tuesday will more wind at her back and will pull way ahead in the delegate count on that day. Obama can stay in the race though by enough close second place finishes and I think he'll pull that off. SC and the Kennedy's have certainly helped to keep the media from counting him out.

Edwards apparently saw the writing on the wall and it's now being reported that he is officially quitting the race. I thought he still had a chance to play kingmarker, but I guess he didn't think so.

On to Super Tuesday....

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The Chase for Change 2008: South Carolina (D) Edition: Obama Gets Some Mo Back Again

So I've been away for the weekend, but now able to write on my blog again, here's my run-down from last night in U.S. politics.

No matter what Hillary Clinton's camp says, South Carolina was a complete blow-out against her. You can't frame 55-27 any other way. To put things in perspective Obama did as well against Hillary in South Carolina as Hillary did against essentially NO ONE (or "uncommitted" to be more precise) in Michigan. While everyone knew Obama was going to win South Carolina the margin of victory is what's brought back some momentum to his campaign. Endorsements now from Corolyn Kennedy (JFK's daughter) and Ted Kennedy will add to that further.

I personally think that, while the exit poll data on this is a bit muddled, Bill Clinton didn't do Hillary any favours in South Carolina. He needs to scale back his campaigning and let her shine on her own for awhile. He seems to have a knack these days for saying dumb things such as that the first act of a Hillary Clinton Presidency would be to send Bill and George W's FATHER overseas to tell everyone "America is open for business again" (which was obviously dismissed by George Bush Sr. within 5 minutes of him hearing the statement), that Obama was too young to be President (he's the same age Clinton was in 1992) and his comparison of Jesse Jackson to Obama the morning of the SC primary came off quite badly as well. Sure Democrats love the Clinton years, but Hillary needs to distinguish herself from her husband and it doesn't seem like he's been helping much of late.

He should be a bit more low key until after February 5th at least I would say and rather than being an attack dog start showing the similar level of class shown by other former Presidents (If I'm not mistaken, George Bush Sr. didn't go around attakcing John McCain so heavily when his son ran in 2000). If he keeps a more positive tone then I think both Hillary and him would be better for it.

All that said, Hillary is still the front-runner for three reasons. One, South Carolina rarely picks the winner. It was low of Bill Clinton to try to make the Jesse Jackson comparison as if to say Obama is no more likely to win than Jackson was(though Jackson still did pretty good back then, but far from getting the nomination), but even so, this state didn't pick the winner in 2004 either. Edwards won then and still came far shy of the nomination (so he must be once more disappointed with the latest results). Secondly, Hillary leads Obama heavily in Florida and even though technically right now it's not clear their delegates will count a big victory for Clinton there will give her back momentum for Super Tuesday February 5th, which is where the bulk of delegates will be won. Third, Hillary also leads in most of the delegate rich states voting on Feb. 5th such as California and New York. I can't see how Obama ends up ahead in the delegate count after Super Tuesday. Just how many he wins though will determine whether or not this thing will stretch to being decided on the convention floor.

Hillary may be the odds on favourite but I won't be putting all my money on her just yet.

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The Race for the White House: Iowa Democratic voters choose change!

Now on the Democratic Side:
The establishment candidate also took a beating, finishing in 3rd place behind Barack Obama who won huge (with an 8% lead) and behind John Edwards.

Now let me first say that I would love nothing more than a female President in the United States (and of course someday soon an elected female PM in Canada) as that would be the ultimate shattering of the glass ceiling.

However, both Barack Obama and John Edwards have much more progressive platforms and really represent a fundamental change in American politics (e.g., Edwards is the only one who actually would give all Americans the option to opt into a single-payer system like we have in Canada - not as good as we have here but that's a huge leap in the U.S. and the other two candidates' health care proposals are not near as progressive, while Obama has the most progressive foreign policy) compared to Hillary Clinton. They are the real change candidates in this election.

I would be quite happy with a Hillary Clinton Presidency, but her platform matters too and while she would move America to the left (which is so desperately needed after 8 disastrous years under Bush), Obama and Edwards would actually move the U.S. much closer to the values the Liberal Party of Canada currently represents on both domestic and foreign policy. Hillary seems to be the cautious candidate who would try to take America in baby steps back towards the centre and her platform is certainly to the right of anything the Liberals would put forth here in Canada.

Obama and Edwards aren't without their faults either (Obama has said some dumb things on foreign policy, while Edwards has been a bit hypocritical by using money from his supporters for a $400 haircut and using too much populist rhetoric and so on), but I must admit that I would prefer each one of them to Hillary. So I'm happy with tonight's results, but at least this race is one where I would happy with whoever wins out of these three.

This race is far from over though on the Democratic side too. If Hillary wins in New Hampshire next Tuesday she's right back in the race and probably becomes the front-runner again. If she doesn't she's in trouble, but not out because like Giuliani polls have her leading in a lot of the delegate rich states like California.

Edwards though has the potential to be the Stephane Dion of this race if he can hang on and win some primaries in the South and on Super Tuesday the first week of February. If (and this hasn't happened in 40 years) this race gets decided on the convention floor (if nobody wins half the delegates after all the primaries that's how it will be decided), Edwards could come up the middle and win as Obama and Clinton might have more difficulty growing beyond their first ballot support. Still he's the biggest long-shot out of the three main contenders right now. We'll see though, interesting times ahead.

Anybody who thinks they can call both the Republican and Democratic races now has another thing coming.

UPDATE: Chris Dodd and Joe Biden have dropped out! This changes everything! Where will their combined 1% of support go? Stay tuned...

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