The Chase for Change 2008: South Carolina (D) Edition: Obama Gets Some Mo Back Again

So I've been away for the weekend, but now able to write on my blog again, here's my run-down from last night in U.S. politics.

No matter what Hillary Clinton's camp says, South Carolina was a complete blow-out against her. You can't frame 55-27 any other way. To put things in perspective Obama did as well against Hillary in South Carolina as Hillary did against essentially NO ONE (or "uncommitted" to be more precise) in Michigan. While everyone knew Obama was going to win South Carolina the margin of victory is what's brought back some momentum to his campaign. Endorsements now from Corolyn Kennedy (JFK's daughter) and Ted Kennedy will add to that further.

I personally think that, while the exit poll data on this is a bit muddled, Bill Clinton didn't do Hillary any favours in South Carolina. He needs to scale back his campaigning and let her shine on her own for awhile. He seems to have a knack these days for saying dumb things such as that the first act of a Hillary Clinton Presidency would be to send Bill and George W's FATHER overseas to tell everyone "America is open for business again" (which was obviously dismissed by George Bush Sr. within 5 minutes of him hearing the statement), that Obama was too young to be President (he's the same age Clinton was in 1992) and his comparison of Jesse Jackson to Obama the morning of the SC primary came off quite badly as well. Sure Democrats love the Clinton years, but Hillary needs to distinguish herself from her husband and it doesn't seem like he's been helping much of late.

He should be a bit more low key until after February 5th at least I would say and rather than being an attack dog start showing the similar level of class shown by other former Presidents (If I'm not mistaken, George Bush Sr. didn't go around attakcing John McCain so heavily when his son ran in 2000). If he keeps a more positive tone then I think both Hillary and him would be better for it.

All that said, Hillary is still the front-runner for three reasons. One, South Carolina rarely picks the winner. It was low of Bill Clinton to try to make the Jesse Jackson comparison as if to say Obama is no more likely to win than Jackson was(though Jackson still did pretty good back then, but far from getting the nomination), but even so, this state didn't pick the winner in 2004 either. Edwards won then and still came far shy of the nomination (so he must be once more disappointed with the latest results). Secondly, Hillary leads Obama heavily in Florida and even though technically right now it's not clear their delegates will count a big victory for Clinton there will give her back momentum for Super Tuesday February 5th, which is where the bulk of delegates will be won. Third, Hillary also leads in most of the delegate rich states voting on Feb. 5th such as California and New York. I can't see how Obama ends up ahead in the delegate count after Super Tuesday. Just how many he wins though will determine whether or not this thing will stretch to being decided on the convention floor.

Hillary may be the odds on favourite but I won't be putting all my money on her just yet.

Recommend this Post

The Chase for Change 2008: South Carolina (R) and Nevada Editions: We Have Front-Runners but It’s Far from Over

So I would say last night the race for the White House got two clear front-runners for each party:
On the Republican side: John McCain banished the ghosts of South Carolina lingering from 8 years ago and won the state that has picked every Republican nominee since 1980. So that, his win in New Hampshire and his good poll numbers in virtually every delegate rich state I think puts him at the front of the pack for now. However, one interesting fact I was happy to hear from this race was that while McCain won in South Carolina this time, he did it with over 100,000 votes LESS than in 2000 when he LOST to George Bush in that state. Those Republicans sure are excited to turn out and vote this year aren’t they? It’s good news for the Democrats anyway.

McCain won’t be running away with this race anytime soon though, as Romney still leads the delegate count and he nabbed another 18 from Nevada yesterday. Even if Mitt doesn’t finish first in a lot of primaries, as long as he’s close each time he’ll still keep racking them up and with enough super-delegate support (and support from anyone left in the race) he could go over the top at the convention. Also, with many Republican only primaries coming up, McCain might not do as well without the help of independents and Democrats. I’d really rather the democrats go up against someone else besides Romney or McCain though (why Democrats and progressives ought to be worried about both candidates will be the subject of another post)…

My favourite Republican Mike Huckabee (because no one else would be so thoroughly crushed by the Democrats) unfortunately lost a lot of momentum last night. I can’t see where else he is likely to pick up another big victory to get the wind at his sails again. I don’t think he’ll do well in the big delegate states like New York, New Jersey and California (he may do ok in Florida), but he may be able to rack up enough decent close finishes to keep him in till the convention to play to king-maker (it’s looking more likely that’s where it will be settled), but I’ve been wrong before…

Then there’s Giuliani. He’s pinned it all on Florida, if he doesn’t win there on the 29th, well then he’s finished, but even if he does, he’s going to need to win big to get back in contention and have people take him seriously again. I mean he’s behind Ron Paul in delegates right now…

On the Democratic side: I would say Hillary clearly has the big mo now with her win in Nevada. Yes it seems for now Obama got more delegates (13 to 12) through their weird caucus system, but all the media networks and the people at home will take home the message that she won 51-45% even though Obama had the endorsement of the largest union in the state.

Obama though has a chance to get some momentum back with a big win in South Carolina next weekend, but this will be a MUST win for him or people will really be starting to count him out. Though if he keeps finishing so closely behind Hillary in each state (or beating her in some) she’s not going to get the delegate threshold required to win automatically before the convention. So it would be decided on the floor instead.

If it goes to that then there will be squabbling over whether Michigan’s and Florida’s delegates should count, the super-delegates will come into play, and Edwards strategy of staying in till the convention may pay off as he might gets to play king-maker (at this point he’s gonna need a huge breakthrough or a huge Hillary or Obama collapse to do better than that role). But we’ve got a long way to go yet…..

Recommend this Post