Monday, March 17, 2008

St. Patty's Day By-Elections: Are Liberals Feeling Lucky?

9:45 PM: Feeling sick (not due to any St. Patty's Day beverages mind you) doesn't make for great help in GOTV efforts, but it doesn't stop me from providing blogging entertaintment as the results come in to all those watching (and surfing) at home.

I'm quite confident things will go well in Toronto tonight, but am hoping for a clean sweep across the country tonight.

In 15 minutes I'll know if I'm gonna start feeling better or worse.

10:03 PM: Here we go...

MHF killing the competition: 65% with 57 votes in! Seriously though, if she gets above 50% at the end of the night that would be a HUGE victory.

Bob Rae leading in similar fashion, but things not looking good in Sask., but it's early yet (only 5% of votes in).

Nothing out of Quadra yet...

10:12 PM: Interesting to see the Green's in SECOND(15.7%) in Toronto Centre right now and the NDP in FOURTH (11.1%). It's looking to be a great night for Jack Layton!

10:13 PM: Still an 18% gap for the Liberals to close in Sask (though only 6% in). Still no Quadra, but safe to say MHF and Bob Rae are going to Ottawa.

10:26 PM: Toronto Centre has been called for Rae, as he flirts with 60% it's a 3 way battle for second. Willowdale called for Martha Hall Findlay, as she's staying near 60% too.

10:31 PM: Quadra shows up, Liberals up by 3%, but with only 0.1% in that's meaningless. The gap has narrowed from a Conservative lead of 20% to 11.7 % in Saskatchewan.

10:38 PM: 10.7% gap now in Sask. with 13% in. Still a ways to go, but it's not looking good there. Quadra is close, but still less than 1% in. No matter what, the Liberals still have great victories in Toronto and it's clear the NDP will be having the worst night of all the parties. It is important for the Liberals to pull out a win in Quadra though.

10:46 PM: Now only 6.6% in Saskatchewan. Now scatch that now just as I'm about to post it's 8.5% now. Ok so there was a moment there.

10:50 PM: Ok so now the Conservative lead is now 13.1%. How their percentage lead doubled in a minute I don't know, but that's it there I'd say, just hope the final tally is closer. Quadra remains extremely close.

11:27 PM: Liberals up by 5% now in Quadra, Conservatives still holding a huge lead in Saskatchewan.

11:46 PM: For those curious here are the numbers for these ridings from 2006 courtesy of Wiki. One really interesting thing to note is that while Quadra is close, the Conservative vote has barely improved at all, rather the Liberals have shed about 10% to the Greens! Great night for the Green party for sure and something for Liberals to think about.

Still it's clear the NDP ought to be a lot more worried about them. So here are the 2006 numbers for comparison purposes.

Toronto Centre

Party Candidate Votes % %Diff from 2004
Liberal Bill Graham 30,874 52.2% -4.30%
NDP Michael Shapcott 14,036 23.7% -0.01%
Cons Lewis Reford 10,763 18.21% +3.42%
Green Chris Tindal 3,080 5.21% +1.30%


Party Candidate Votes % %Diff from 2004

Liberal Jim Peterson 30,713 55.23 -9.15
Cons Jovan Boseovski 16,247 29.31 +6.21
NDP Rochelle Carnegie 6,334 11.35 +1.78
Green Sharolyn Vettese 2,271 4.09 +0.43

Desneth√©—Missinippi—Churchill River

Party Candidate Votes % %Diff from 2004

Liberal Gary Merasty 10,191 41.37% +11.49
Cons. Jeremy Harrison 10,124 41.09% +3.68
NDP Anita Jackson 3,787 15.37% -4.71
Green John McDonald 534 2.16% -0.60

Vancouver Quadra

Party Candidate Votes % %Diff from 2004

Liberal Stephen Owen 28,285 48.84% -3.59
Cons. Stephen Rogers 16,844 29.09% +2.78
NDP David Askew 9,321 16.1% +1.11
Green Ben West 2,979 5.14% -0.46

12:30 AM: They've all been called now. The Liberals take 3 of 4. A good night, but not a great night I'd say. A great night for the Greens, a good night for the conservatives (the Toronto results really ought to give them pause about how well Flaherty's war on Ontario is going) and a terrible night for the NDP.

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