Tuesday, April 22, 2008

The Chase for Change 2008: Pennsylvania Edition (Live Blog)

The Chase for Change returns and so do this blog from its hiatus! With school done now it will be back to business as usual here. So I’ll be live-blogging the Pennsylvania results as they come in.
An early prediction: I say Hillary wins by 7% (wait (9:10 PM): since it seems only Obama and Clinton are on the ballot I doubt 1% of Dems will spoil so a 8% spread makes more sense- wasn't sure if Gravel was still hanging around though I see Paul and Huckabee are still on the Republican ballot) and stays in the race. CNN says the race is close based on exit polls. However, we know how accurate American exit polls have been in the past so we will see… Anyways check back later at this link as the results keep coming in

I’ll also be doing a post later tonight on the past week in Canadian politics that has surely made Conservatives happier than they ever been.

8:40 PM: With less than 1% in (keep checking that link if you want the up-to date results), Hillary leads 65% - 35%. Strongly doubt this kind of lead will hold.

8:50 PM: According to exit polls (again I'm not totally sold on these) late deciders went for Clinton, but newly signed up Democrats went mostly for Obama. Interpret as you will...

8:51 PM: 3% in Hillary up 55% - 45%. This seems more like a number that could hold but early yet.

9:03 PM: According to exit polls (alas, the talking heads have little else to talk about right now), 40% of voters tonight were over 60, while only 10% were under 30. That's surprising I'd say...
Gap is narrowing though, 52%-48%. It's only 6% in, but the Clinton campaign might be getting worried right now.

9:05 PM: Ok Hillary has been pronounced the winner of Pennsylvania now by CNN. But what matters really is the spread, she needs to do better than a 5% win I'd say.

9:15 PM: Turnout was apparently almost 50% in this primary (compares with 18% in 2000). Bodes well for the Democrats in November anyway...

9:23 PM: The mood has gotten a lot better over at Clinton HQ I'm sure as she's up 53-47% with 18% in.

9:39 PM: The Clinton argument to come: She's won working class voters and Obama would lose them to McCain ending up like Dukakis in 1988 who lost Pennsylvania to Bush Sr because he lost working class voters to him. It's definitely true the Dems need to win Pennsylvania in November but we'll see if this argument has any traction.

9:50 PM: Clinton up by 10% now. Exit polls look like they were wrong again.

10:10 PM: Clinton up by 8% (close to what I predicted) with 55%. I think she's about to hit the stage. Governor Rendell is coming out now, I think he'll introduce her.

10:15 PM: Out she comes. She's looking happy. I guess Obama will speak later from Indiana. I expect her to mention more than once that Obama outspent her 3 to 1 and/or talk about how hard he campaigned there, etc....

10:16 PM: Bill Clinton is behind her this time for what I think is the first time in awhile for a victory speech. Not sure that's a great move, he just seems to be full of controversy this race.

- Talks about family roots in Pennsylvania.
- She's in this race till the end
- She'll stand up for the common people
- Compliments Obama and his supporters. Nice touch.
- Talks about women born before women could vote who could say to their granddaughters if Hillary were President: "see you can be anything you want." Good line.
- Ok so now she mentions Obama outspent her "so massively". Boos from the crowd.
- Mentions Obama's spending again: Obama spent more than anyone in history of the state. I was right she's hitting that point more than once.
- "America is worth fighting for, you are worth fighting for"
- Talks about the importance of the feminist and civil rights movement: "This generation will grow up taking for granted that an African American or woman could be President of the United States" Another good line. Somehow don't think we'll be hearing it from John McCain.
- "The question isn't whether we can, but whether we will!"
- So she's trying to make "Yes We Will" her slogan
- So she says Yes She Will change this country. "God bless" and she exits to "This is Our Country"...

10:36 PM: 75% in, Clinton leads 54%-46%, this looks like this might hold. Even though her speech made it obvious she wants to carry on, I think she will have enough of a claim to do so.

10:42 PM: Obama is being introduce now. LOL Obama enters to "This Is Our Country!" Guess Clinton and him aren't just getting closer in slogans, but theme music too.

- Congratulates Clinton
- Mentions people thought he was going to be blown out and he's closed the gap. So there's the two arguments - Clinton says Obama spent too much money and couldn't win while Obama says he still narrowed the gap substantially.
- Obama says he registered record number of voters and it will be those that bring victory to Democrats in November.
- "We aren't here to talk about change for change's sake we are here because our country desperately needs it, we can't afford to keep doing what we've been doing the last 4 years."
- Uses the same line he's used 100 times before "we can't send the same players to Washington and expect a different result"
- John McCain isn't offering meaningful change from the policies of George W. Bush (I notice now Hillary didn't talk about McCain very much)
- Another line used for the 1000th time: "A war that should not have been authorized and should not have been waged."
- Goes off about McCain's support of Bush
- John McCain thinks America is making progress but he's blind to the problems that exist.
- The question "isn't whether the other party will bring change to Washington we know they won't the question is whether this party will"
- "We can be a party that takes money from lobbyists, we can look the other way for 4 years as they prevent us from changing health care or we can rein in their power and take our Government back"
- "We can regain not just an office, but the trust of the American people."
- "We can continue to cut this country into Red States and Blue States or we can continue the movement we started in this campaign and bring all Americans together....mentions each American demographic" (Note: I still think Obama is naive to think Republicans will work with him or any Democratic President)
- "The status quo in Washington will fight as hard as they can to stop us from now till November but don't forget that you have the power to change this country - you can make this election about what you want"
- "If we're willing to believe in what's possible again, we won't just win this primary season, we will change this country and we will change this world and this country will meet it's promise in the 21st century, let's get to work" And that's it for him.

11:06 PM: 84% in, Clinton up 55% - 45%. It will be a strong symbolic argument for her if she lands that double digit win.

12:30 AM: 98% in, Clinton still up 55% - 45%. I think her supporters will be happy with that.

Be back soon with my thoughts on tonight's results (my Pennsylvania follow-up can be found here)....

Recommend this Post


Northern PoV said...

I haven't seen anyone do this:
In the Nov election each state is a win/lose in terms of electoral college votes.
The Dems primaries awarded delegates proportionally.
How many electoral college votes (not delegates) would Obama & Clinton get if they were awarded on a state by state win/lose basis.

This is similar to Clinton's "large state" argument on win-ability.

(disclosure - I prefer Obama)

Scott Tribe said...

Welcome back to regular blogging!

As for this race.. Clinton isn't gong to gain much in the way of delegate from this (the CNN score shows she's only leading +7) and that gets cancelled out by Obama expected to do very well in NC.

If she loses Indiana, a state she lead but now apparently is trailing of late, that might convince the remaining supers (if not her) that Obama is the nominee and should be supported.

Scott Tribe said...

northern pov:

I guess that would be a relevant thing to look at if you thought Obama could win some of these "red states" that Clinton supporters literally deride him for winning and saying those states don't count because they won't vote Dem in November.

That said, polls show him leading McCain in states like Colorado and some other mid-western states where Clinton trails MCcain.