Some Perspective: Where Were We At This Point Last Time? Part 2

UPDATED: Strategic Counsel (including tonight's poll added)
I don’t generally like to blog about polls, but with it being so close to e-day they take on a lot more relevance. But we should also take into account how the polls were at this point last time and I remain disappointed that no media outlet has done so. So to give a more balanced view of the polls here are the polling results from the main companies at the equivalent point before E-day(Jan. 20th, 2006) last time compared to today:

Polling Company	Conservative	Liberal	NDP	Green	Bloc	Lib-Cons Diff
Nanos	36.2	29.4	17.3	6.1	11	6.8%
Ipsos-Reid	38	26	19	5	11	12%
Ekos	37.1	26.9	19.5	4.6	11.5	10.2%
Strategic Counsel	38	28	17	7	11	10%
Decima (Jan. 15)	37	27	18	---	11	10%

And here are the results as of today:

Polling Company	Conservative	Liberal	NDP	Green	Bloc	Lib-Cons Diff
Nanos	32 (-4.2)	28 (-1.4)	22 (+4.7)	8 (+1.9)	10 (-1)	4%(-2.8%)
Ipsos-Reid	34 (-4)	29 (+3)	18 (-1)	8 (+3)	9 (-2)	5%(-7%)
Ekos	34 (-3.1)	26 (-0.9)	19 (-0.5)	11 (+6.4)	10(-1.5)	8%(-2.2%)
Strategic Counsel	35 (-3)	28 (NC)	19 (+2)	9(+2)	9(-2)	7%(-3%)
Decima	35 (-2)	25 (-2)	18 (NC)	11	9 (-2)	10%(NC, but poll was taken 8 days before e-day last time

I couldn’t find the regional poll numbers from 2006 it would be interesting to compare how those compared as well, if anyone can find them please put them in the comments.

But with respect to the national numbers what’s changed compared to 2006? Well Conservative support is actually more down now in the polls than at this point last time than the Liberal vote is. The good news for Liberals is that Conservatives ended up doing worse on e-day than most of the pollsters pegged them and the Liberals ended up doing better.

NDP supporters might find it interesting to see that, with the exception of Nanos (ironically Dippers have been slagging the accuracy of Nanos all election and were talking up Decima not too long ago), they are exactly where they were last time despite having spent far more money and having run a much stronger campaign this time out. The Greens are the only ones
consistently up from where they were before.

But one thing is clear: the polls are showing a closer race between the Liberals and Conservatives than last time at this point. But it would seem that this time voter’s preferences are even more volatile as we’ve seen much more wild swings in support in the past week of the campaign this time around.

In the end though only Liberals or Conservatives can win and whichever one has the better final weekend, makes the most effective ad buys AND (most importantly) gets out the vote best on e-day will win.

Be back later with much more...

Recommend this Post