Tuesday, January 15, 2008

The Chase for Change 2008: Did "Democrats for Romney" Win it For Him in Michigan? (UPDATE: Apparently not)

It seems Mitt Romney has already been projected as the winner in Michigan. As of 9:30 PM he leads 40% to 30% over McCain with 22% of polls in.

Maybe I was a bit too quick to count him out of the race completely, but since his father was Governor of Michigan way back a win there hardly put him back at the front of the race. He's still a bigger long-shot than Huckabee or McCain (who I still see as the front-runner because of New Hampshire), but maybe about even now with Giuliani who will have to win huge in Florida.

However, what I'l be interested to see is how many Democrats turned out to vote in the Republican primary and whether they strongly backed Mitt? There were a number of progressive Democratic blogs (and other Democratic Party groups) pushing for Democrats to come out in big numbers to revive Romney's campaign so that the Republican race would continue to be a dog fight with at least 4 main contenders to slug it out. Even if only 5%-10% of the voters in the Republican primary were Democrats turning out to vote for Romney that definitely would serve to have helped give him a larger margin of victory and thus a bit more momentum going forward.

Personally I think Michigan's primary voting system is crazy. Imagine letting Conservative Party members in Canada come vote at the Liberal leadership race. Well that's what it's like in Michigan.

If it turns out it was Democratic voters that carried this race for Romney, maybe Michigan will finally want to re-think its voting system?

UPDATE: Romney wins 39% to 30% over McCain in the final results. However, it sounds as if Mitt Romney won primarily on the strength of some of the more Conservative Republicans. The numbers indicate that Democrats who voted in the Republican primary I think actually went a bit more for McCain. Maybe there will be better number crunching, but it seems if the Democratic Party voters may have only played a very small role in Mitt Romney's victory if any. My thoughts on Michigan's crazy primary system and the current outlook for the Presidential campaign still stand though.

As for the Democratic race, with Hillary running essentially alone among the big contenders, her 55% to 40% (for Uncommitted) I don't think really changes much of the race on the Democratic side. Not an overwhelming victory when you are running alone, but hardly a defeat either.

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calgarygrit said...

The CNN graphics seemed to imply that Romney's strength came from the Republican base so I guess the Dems for Mitt didn't push him over the top (although it might have helped).