Thursday, January 3, 2008

The Race for the White House: Iowa Democratic voters choose change!

Now on the Democratic Side:
The establishment candidate also took a beating, finishing in 3rd place behind Barack Obama who won huge (with an 8% lead) and behind John Edwards.

Now let me first say that I would love nothing more than a female President in the United States (and of course someday soon an elected female PM in Canada) as that would be the ultimate shattering of the glass ceiling.

However, both Barack Obama and John Edwards have much more progressive platforms and really represent a fundamental change in American politics (e.g., Edwards is the only one who actually would give all Americans the option to opt into a single-payer system like we have in Canada - not as good as we have here but that's a huge leap in the U.S. and the other two candidates' health care proposals are not near as progressive, while Obama has the most progressive foreign policy) compared to Hillary Clinton. They are the real change candidates in this election.

I would be quite happy with a Hillary Clinton Presidency, but her platform matters too and while she would move America to the left (which is so desperately needed after 8 disastrous years under Bush), Obama and Edwards would actually move the U.S. much closer to the values the Liberal Party of Canada currently represents on both domestic and foreign policy. Hillary seems to be the cautious candidate who would try to take America in baby steps back towards the centre and her platform is certainly to the right of anything the Liberals would put forth here in Canada.

Obama and Edwards aren't without their faults either (Obama has said some dumb things on foreign policy, while Edwards has been a bit hypocritical by using money from his supporters for a $400 haircut and using too much populist rhetoric and so on), but I must admit that I would prefer each one of them to Hillary. So I'm happy with tonight's results, but at least this race is one where I would happy with whoever wins out of these three.

This race is far from over though on the Democratic side too. If Hillary wins in New Hampshire next Tuesday she's right back in the race and probably becomes the front-runner again. If she doesn't she's in trouble, but not out because like Giuliani polls have her leading in a lot of the delegate rich states like California.

Edwards though has the potential to be the Stephane Dion of this race if he can hang on and win some primaries in the South and on Super Tuesday the first week of February. If (and this hasn't happened in 40 years) this race gets decided on the convention floor (if nobody wins half the delegates after all the primaries that's how it will be decided), Edwards could come up the middle and win as Obama and Clinton might have more difficulty growing beyond their first ballot support. Still he's the biggest long-shot out of the three main contenders right now. We'll see though, interesting times ahead.

Anybody who thinks they can call both the Republican and Democratic races now has another thing coming.

UPDATE: Chris Dodd and Joe Biden have dropped out! This changes everything! Where will their combined 1% of support go? Stay tuned...


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2 comments:

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Justin Beach said...

Hi Danielle,

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Justin Beach
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