To prove to the blogging community that I know more beyond our own borders and perhaps even gain some U.S. readership :) I give my cents on the Iowa primaries. This will the first in a series of posts between now and November for Danielle Takacs' "Race for the White House 2008: The Chase for 'Change' ". Everyone is supposedly a "change" candidate (I wonder why?), which ones (Dem and Rep) will win?
It's definitely shaping up to be an interesting race down South.
First on the Republican side:
Hooray for Huckabee! He crushed the establishment candidate Mitt Romney (former Governor of Mass. and someone who has flip-flopped on every matter of principle in the past few years) by over 10%.
Now quite honestly he is an incredibly scary candidate who might very well make for the worst U.S. President in history, but of everyone in the Republican field, Mike Huckabee is easily the most likely to specularly self-destruct in a general election campaign and hand the Presidency to the Demorats.
I mean look at this guy:
- Wants to impose a 23% sales tax on all Americans. He might take some lessons from here on how popular that 7% GST was (yes I know he wants to eliminate the IRS, but his plan would still be crushing on the lower and middle class).
- He doesn't believe in evolution and talks as if non-Christians aren't real Americans (maybe he'll someday figure out there are a lot of non-Christians in that country) and is horribly intolerant on so many issues that would repel many moderate Americans
- He would divide his party in two: He has the backing of all the social conservatives, but the more socially liberal Republicans would never vote for him.
- He has a history of troubling ethical issues as Governor in Arkansas that would not play too well in a general campaign
Since the world so desperately needs a Democratic President, I will continue to root for this man. However, we should all remember that Iowa isn't everything.
Bill Clinton didn't win Iowa in 1992 but still won the Democratic nomination so Iowa does not always determine who wins the nominations for each party. Also, Huckabee has been brutal at fundraising and doesn't have much money left for the rest of the primaries. All he has got is momentum, but that may not be enough.
Huckabee also won't likely win New Hampshire. It's a tough battle between McCain and Romney there. Whoever wins there is going go strongly toe to toe with Huckabee for at least the next few weeks.
As well, people might think that just because Giuliani got 4% in Iowa that he is finished, but he didn't campaign in the early states. He's going after the big delegate states like Florida and California and if he wins there he can still win. He has to win Florida on Jan. 29th and get some momentum on his side though as he can't keep losing early primaries without some people starting to count him out. But for now he's still easily in the game as he leads in the polls in a lot of the delegate rich states.
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