Wednesday, January 9, 2008

The Chase for Change 2008: New Hampshire

It's definitely anyone's game again. I guess my predictive abilities still need some work, but at least I did better than the polling companies! The actual results (my predictions in brackets and my thoughts below)....

Democrats: Clinton: 39% (35%)
Obama: 37% (39%)
Edwards: 17% (20%)
Richardson: 5% (6%)
Others: 1% (less than 1%)

Republicans: McCain: 37% (37%)
Romney: 32% (30%)
Huckabee: 11% (13%)
Giuliani: 9% (10%)
Paul: 8% (6%)
Thompson: 1% (4%)
Others: less than 1% (less than 1%)

My thoughts:
I should not have bought into the polls. As I said after Iowa, if Hillary won in New Hampshire then she would be right back in the race and probably become the slight front-runner again. Bill Clinton lost Iowa and then won New Hampshire, Hillary has followed his lead. But this isn't 1992 and there are many states left to go. This time the first two states don't get to decide the nominees and that is really the way it should be. Obama remains the favourite in South Carolina and becomes a must win for him to get back the momentum (or at least he has to beat Clinton if somehow Edwards finishes first) . It would prove he can compete in the South and would set him up well for Super Tuesday. The next few weeks will be crucial for both him and Clinton though.

Edwards may have hurt himself with his moronic comments criticizing Hillary for crying (news flash John: people are allowed to be human in politics) as he didn't do as well in New Hampshire as I thought he would (and I've certainly lost some respect for him). He definitely needs to bring his numbers up down South if he's to get back in the game (or else really hope the nomination gets decided at convention and that he can come up the middle).

At least Obama can say he almost won tonight, but the only real winner tonight is Hillary. Even though Hillary isn't my most preferred candidate of the three, coronations are never good for any party so it will be good for the ultimate winner to have to fight harder to win in the end. Either way, I see no way for this nomination to be decided now until at least Super Tuesday and maybe not even then.

I actually for once was pretty accurate in my predictions on this one. What I said earlier today still stands, I peg McCain as the slight front-runner, but the Southern states will be key and it likely won't be decided till Super Tuesday either. Giuliani, Huckabee and McCain all still have a shot.

However, in both races it appears at least possible that either nomination will be decided on the convention floor for the first time in 40 years! Things are definitely getting interesting.

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Anonymous said...

The polls showed him losing support from Saturday onward other than Zogby, who probably included too many youth and independents based on Iowa.

What the polsters did that was wrong and the media is include Saturday and not discuss the downward trend. The downward trend after a bounce is not rocket science. It happens every single time.

Rassmussen polled Obama at only 1% above Clinton on Monday night. Instead of reporting that and the downward trend with the possibility of a Clinton win, which I did predict as a possibility, they chose to report a 7% lead, 14% Sat night, 6% Monday night. If you continue the trend, which was 100% clear from Rassmussen polling you get to a 4% win for Clinton which is exactly what happened.

It was there the media and the polsters learned a big lesson, but they already knew it and ignored it bounce comes down. Trends are more important than actual numbers. His trend was down hers up.

Anonymous said...

THey also by the way, kept betting on Obama keeping recorn numbers of YOuth turnout, except Cokie ROberts of ABC who doubted he could repeat that.

An interesting question is how many of those youth votes in Iowa were imported, as there is no time for residency required. There were an awful lot of out of state youth voting for Obama in Iowa and he still only really got 30%. The other 8% is secon choice no viables from Richardson etc. That can't happen again.

It was there to see. People didn't want to see it.

Anonymous said...

A little late but wanted to let you know I liked your analysis - and think your predictions were actually quite good - you were much closer than most polling outfits.

Agree with you wholeheartedly on the "no coronation" statement. I've been saying all week - no coronations and no rock stars.

Whoever ultimately earns the nomination spot needs to go through a thorough vetting - presenting and defending their ideas and policies.

Love you blog.