Sunday, February 10, 2008

The Chase for Change 2008: Obama Wins Big, McCain Suffers a Minor Embarassment

So it wasn't terribly surprising that Obama swept the three races last night or that he won Maine today, but the huge margins of victory certainly now have the Clinton campaign pretty worried (judging by the firing of Hillary's campaign manager). So Obama is definitely going on more momentum here.

However, even if Obama runs the table on the rest of the primaries this month, I still give the slight edge to Hillary for two reasons:

1) In order to be able to credibly claim he leads in pledged delegates going into the convention (which I think ultimately will be what will swing the oustanding superdelegates) Obama needs a lead greater than the number of delegates Michigan and Florida would have awarded Hillary had those two states not been stripped of their delegates. If he has anything less, his claim to be in the pledged delegate lead would be severely questioned and would cause some huge friction in the Democratic party and put the superdelegates in a very difficult position in deciding who to go to as Hillary would simultaneously claim she has the true pledged delegate lead.

2) The latest polls showed Hillary in the lead in Texas and Ohio which are two HUGE delegate states left. IF (and that's a big IF) Hillary wins in those two states as big as she did in New York and California then that would carry huge momentum going into Pennsylvania (where I think she's also favoured) and then I think she would go on to the nomination.

We'll see though. At one point many poeple thought Hillary would take Maine and she lost by double digits, but at the same time, all of Obama's momentum going into Super Tuesday didn't help him in Mass., New York or California. Still too close to call for sure.

As for the Republicans, I was surprised to see Huckabee win Kansas and Louisana; however, I hardly think it will have much too much of an impact. What it will mean is that McCain will have to spend a bit more money and a bit more time campaigning in reminaing primary states to avoid the appearance that he limped across the finish line, but I am 100% certain that McCain will still win the nomination before the convention. More on him tomorrow though.

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