Wednesday, February 6, 2008

The Chase for Change 2008: Super Tuesday Post-Mortem: McCain Pulls Away, Obama Gains Ground

So Super Tuesday is done and one race seems almost over and another somewhat closer than I thought it would be.

McCain hasn't officially won the nomination yet, but Romney was seriously wounded with a loss in California and if he drops out I can't possibly see how Huckabee could win toe to toe with McCain. I was surprised Huckabee did so well last night, but if he has any hope of playing king-maker and being the VP nominee he had better hope Romney stays in in the race. Still I think McCain will officially get the required delegate threshold on March 4th when Texas and Ohio vote.

As for the Democratic race, Hillary won by a wider margin in California and New York than I expected and took Mass. which I had not expected (and also shows the limited power of the Kennedy endorsment there). However, Obama took more states than I had expected, particularly a lot of red states where some people once said he could never play in. Clinton remains ahead though in the delegate count when you factor in superdelegates.

I understand the next few contests favour Obama, which may add a bit more momentum to his campaign, but I also understand the big delegate states Texas and Ohio favour Clinton and it seems Clinton has done really well in the big states so far so I still give her the edge for the nomination, but it's definitely gonna be close and there's no way it will be decided until March 4th and could easily carry on after that.

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Scott Tribe said...

About that Kennedy endorsement.. let's take note here that before the endorsement, the polls showed Obama was 25 points or so down to Hillary there. After the endorsement, he lost by what, 15 or so? SO, the endorsement did have SOME affect.

Anonymous said...

I don't know if Tribe could really say that was because of Kennedy, in most states Obama has caught up in the same time frame by same relative margin.

Scott Tribe said...

In some cases, yes... but let's face it, Clinton had an overwhelming lead in this state before the endorsement, in a state which was in an area generally thought to be Hillary country, and Obama had less catching up to her percentage wise in other states. So, I don't think the Kennedy endorsement was a complete non-factor.

Regardless, I also slightly disagree with Danielle. I think Obama has the clear edge here now, looking at those states coming up and most acknowledged to be good ones for him.